fredag den 15. maj 2009

Krigen der aldrig stopper

Arnaud De Borchgrave om Israel/Palestina konflikten:

Jordan's King Abdullah, in his 10th year on the Hashemite throne, warned that either a Palestinian state must be created this year or there will be another war in the Middle East in 2010.

If the king's either/or prognostication proves accurate, war will come again next year because there isn't a snowball's chance in the Negev desert of a Palestinian state in the West Bank in 2009 — or 2010. The creation of such an entity would cost tens of billions of dollars that the United States would be expected to pay. The repatriation of about 300,000 Jewish settlers in 160 settlements, would entail billions more.

And after what happened in Gaza in 2005, where about 50,000 Israel Defense Forces troops and Israeli police forcibly evicted 8,000 settlers who had occupied 40 percent of the 130-mile strip for 38 years, few, if any, are willing to be uprooted again.

Hvad kong Abdullah, mener med denne trussel, kan tiden jo kun vise.
Men som Arnaud påpeger, bliver der ikke fred i 2010, der bliver heller ikke fred så længe som at Hamas eksisterer. Og Israel har ikke lyst til at fjerne bosættere, når takken for at fjerne dem fra Gaza var raketter.

"Seldom prone to hyperbole, the Western-trained Abdullah said Israel is being offered "one-third of the world waiting to meet Israelis with open arms . . . The future is not the Jordan River or the Sinai; the future is Morocco in the Atlantic and Indonesia in the Pacific. That is the prize" for Israel. "
Det er værd at studse over disse bemærkninger. Muslimerne er meget bevidste om at de snart, men ikke nu, er en 1/3 del af verdens befolkning. Og Israel er sig lige så bevidst om, at dets overlevelsesmuligheder af samme årsag, er blevet noget mindre.

Ikke alle palæstinensere er lige så begejsret for tanken om en Palæstinensisk stat, som jeg har været inde på før:

Even with territorial adjustments to the 1967 border in Israel's favor, which the Arab peace plan allows for, Israelis would begin to feel that the purely Jewish state concept is condemned by history to a short shelf life. Underlying the geopolitical equation is the growing belief among Palestinian intellectuals that a one-state solution is preferable to two states. This school now argues it would be wiser in the long run to become an underprivileged, downtrodden minority within the state of Israel and the occupied territories, whence they could campaign with Israel's 1.2 million-strong Arab minority for equal rights. The overwhelming majority of these Israeli Arabs say they want to remain part of Israel. Demography eventually will deliver a Lebanon-style hybrid state, many believe.

There is little doubt that Obama will be tougher on Israel than his predecessors. Vice President Joe Biden told the annual convention of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee what it didn't like hearing: Don't build more settlements, dismantle "existing outposts," and let the Palestinians move freely. The "outposts" comment referred only to recent clandestine expansion, not to the 160 Jewish enclaves in the West Bank.

Words alone will not change Israeli policy. Netanyahu has stated flatly that Israel is not bound by any previous commitment to a two-state solution for the Palestinians. For the Palestinians, the capital of a sovereign state has to be Arab East Jerusalem, where the Israelis have settled 200,000 Jews.

Making aid to Israel conditional on the creation of a Palestinian state in 2009 would be a thunderclap heard around the world. But a sense-of-Congress resolution would drain such a warning of substance.

Israel's main concern at this geopolitical crossroads is Iran's nuclear ambitions and the existential threat it poses to the Jewish body politic. Diplomatic scuttlebutt has White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel dropping hints to major donors behind closed doors at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last week that "thwarting Iran's nuclear program is conditional on progress in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians."

As part of a humongous peace plan that would cover all Middle Eastern bases, the Obama foreign policy team also has been trying to detach Syria from its principal benefactor, Iran. Syria's government dailies riposted with targeted anti-Semitic articles. Columnist Jallal Kheir Bek said the Jews sucked the blood from Jesus' wounds during his crucifixion and called for the Arabs, Muslims, and Christians to unite to defeat them. Hard to break bad habits in the Middle East.

Israel skal ikke have frataget sin støtte, lige som palæstinenserne heller ikke mangler deres, skal Israel heller ikke mangle deres. Det er Hamas og lignende som er snublestenen på vejen til fred, ikke Israel.
Hvad man end mener om Israels magtbrug, bruger de den kun, når der bliver lavet terrorangreb eller affyret raketter og morterer.

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