Jim Rogers om Kina og om at se forandringer i god tid

Dette er et ældre interview med Jim Rogers, men absolut værd at læse og et af de bedre:

Jim Rogers: My thinking has changed about a lot of things over the years. I never wanted to have children. I figured they were just a terrible waste of time, energy, money and everything else. Now I have these two little girls, and I can't tell you how wrong I was about children. They are the most wonderful thing. Thirty years ago I thought just like everybody else did on many issues of the day. For instance, I would have said that Red China was some sort of horrible, disastrous nation. I had never been to China in the 1970s and now having seen the world, I am well aware that the way we thought when we grew up is not necessarily correct. Anyway, the world changes, and it changes dramatically. Under Mao Zedong, China was in fact a disaster, but then Yung Paw Ching came along and the world changed. Part of the problem is that most are aware that things change but they don't spot it soon enough. I've tried to be receptive to spotting change and now I try harder to spot change in advance.

Daily Bell: Did you set out to become famous and wealthy, or it something that evolved as did your career?

Jim Rogers: I did set out to find my freedom. I knew that in order to have total freedom to do what I wanted to do I would have to make money. I figured that out an early age. Living in the back woods of Alabama, I wanted to get out and see the world and I figured you had to have money to do that. The rest of it followed, though of course I had no idea where I would end up.

Daily Bell: Explain why you are so attracted to China?

Jim Rogers: It is not that I am attracted to China. It is that I see what is happening in China. I see the enormous changes that are taking place in China. I hope I would have thought that I would have seen the same sort of promise in Britain in 1807 – and seen that the UK was going to emerge on the world scene in a big way. I would hope I'd have detected the same promise in 1907 as regards America. Few people saw anything in the UK in 1807. Few people saw anything happening in America in 1907. The country was bankrupt in 1907, totally corrupt – Wall Street, Washington, everywhere. Yet, in fact, America was on the verge of becoming the greatest success of the 20th century.

Again, things change. If you study history you can see that. China has had recurring periods of greatness three or four times in the last few thousand years. Britain was great once, Egypt was great once, and Rome was great once. China has been great three or four times. It's a resilient country, and we can see that now. For 300 years China was in decline. In fact, a few hundred years ago, China's Emperor destroyed all the big sailing ships. They had vessels that had been to America, to Africa. They were sailing around the world long before Columbus. And yet the Emperor decided the China was not going to travel across seas anymore. He destroyed all the ships, destroyed all the maps, destroyed the records, destroyed everything. China, as could be expected, went into decline.

Læs det hele her på Daily Bell:

Jim Rogers - Interview With the Financial Times

Did you think you would get to where you are?

No, I am as surprised as anyone. I certainly wanted to get somewhere and was willing to work hard. I wanted to retire young, but I never thought I would retire before 40.

When you realised that you had made your first million were you tempted to slow down?

I can remember the exact day of my first million dollars’ net worth. It was in November 1977. I was 35. I knew I needed more than that to do what I wanted when I was 37 – the age I decided to stop working to seek adventure.

What is the secret of your success?

As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are likely to make a lot of money.

What is your basic investment strategy?

Buy low and sell high. I try to find something that is very cheap, where a positive change is taking place. Then I do enough homework to make sure I am right. It has got to be cheap so that, if I am wrong, I don’t lose much money. Every time I make a mistake, it is usually because I did not do enough homework.

Do not underestimate the value of due diligence. In the 1960s, General Motors was the world’s most successful company. One day, a GM analyst went to the board of directors with the message: “The Japanese are coming.” They ignored him. Investors who did their homework sold their GM stock – and bought Toyota instead.

I’m not buying any stocks at the moment. If anything is undervalued now it is commodities and some currencies.

What has been your most spectacular gain?

The Quantum Fund. When we started the company in 1970, I had $600 in my pocket. Within 10 years, the portfolio had gained 4,200 per cent.

Do you want to carry on till you drop?

No. These days, I spend very few hours a day working, because I have two little girls and I want to spend as much time with them as possible.

Both our girls have a Chinese governess and speak fluent Mandarin. For their generation, Mandarin and English will be the most important languages.

Have you made any pension provision?

I don’t have a pension because I hope I don’t need one. I have accumulated assets and that is what I live on.

What is your commitment to charity?

I have given money to students and schools around the world. I try to give scholarships to students rather than schools, because the students need the money more than administrators.

Do you allow yourself the odd indulgence?

I have been around the world twice. Setting off in 1990, I spent 22 months travelling through six continents on a motorcycle.

On my second trip, which started in 1999, my wife and I travelled for three years through 116 countries in a custom-made Mercedes.

What is the most you have ever paid for a bottle of fine wine or champagne?

I don’t have an upper limit for champagne, but I’ve never had the urge to spend $2,000 on a bottle of wine. I always remember my background. I did not have money as a kid.

Picasso or Art Deco as an investment?

I am at a stage where I am not interested in having or amassing stuff.

Do you believe in passing your wealth to children?

I’ve always thought that, if you give children too much, you will ruin them. I have set up my will so they don’t get much until they are at least 30.

I went to Yale and Oxford and a lot of rich kids were there who never had to work. I know I want my children to be well-
educated and experience the workplace.

Education and the necessity to work changed my life and yanked me out of the backwater of Alabama.

Where should people put their money in the recession?

Invest only in things you know something about. The mistake most people make is that they listen to hot tips, or act on something they read in magazines.

Most people know a lot about something, so they should just stick to what they know and buy an investment in that area. That is how you get rich.

You don’t get rich investing in things you know nothing about.

Fra Jim Rogers blog:

Wiki om Rogers:

Jim Rogers taler som altid rent ud af posen

Jim Rogers havde ret før krisen, mon ikke han får ret efter den også?

TV fra Freedom Watch i en stil, som jeg godt kunne savne på dansk fjernsyn, både værtens oplæg og spørgsmål og Jim Rogers svar:

"Du kan ikke bruge penge, du ikke har."

"USA er verdens største gældsnation, ikke i verden, men i verdenshistorien. Intet land har nogensinde rejst så meget gæld som USA. Det er ikke kun et problem for vores børn og børnebørn, det er et problem for dig og mig og vores forældre... Personerne i Washington er kun bekymret for næste valg, de er ligeglade med dig, de er lige med mig, de bekymrer sig mere om deres næste løncheck, end de bekymrer sig om dig og mig..."

"Jeg ville fortælle præsidenten at nedskære så dramatisk, at det ville brænde ørerne på folk, du er nødt til at lave forfærdelige nedskæringer. Hvis jeg styrede ville hugge afgifterne af med en økse, vi er nødt til at reducere offentligt forbrug, vi er nødt til at nedsætte skatterne. Vi ville lade det amerikanske folk bestemme, hvad de skal bruge pengene til. Jeg ved meget bedre, hvad jeg vil bruge mine penge på, end George Bush, Bil Clinton, Obama."

"I Washington dræber de den klasse, der sparer op, folk der har gjort det rigtige i ti år. De smadrer den gruppe, der får nul afkast på deres opsparing, fordi renten er nul. Når du ødelægger sparerne, så ødelægger dit lands fremtid."

Jim Rogers, der forudså at Fannie Mae og Freddie Mac gik ned med flaget år før det skete. svarer på spørgsmålet om, hvad der venter USA; At der venter det samme som er sket det sidste halvandet år, det vil fortsætte mod det værre, dollar vil blive svækket og renten og inflationen vil stige.