fredag den 19. november 2010

Enormt interessant interview om olieprisens indflydelse på økonomien

Når Babelstårnet A og B er lige høje, er det for så vidt irrelevant, hvilket af dem, der vælter først.

Men nogle interessante betragtninger af Jeff Rubin omkring olieprisens indflydelse på inflationen, der så påvirkede daværende chef for den amerikanske centralbank, Alan Greenspans, rentepolitik, så renten røg op på over 5 pct. Hvilket så nede i dominorækken rev tæppet væk under subprime lånerne og de amerikanske banker eksponeret mod boligmarkedet.

Hans Budskab - Vi løber ikke tør for olie, vi løber tør for olie, vi har råd til. Verden kommer til at blive meget mindre, for transport bliver dyrere, når olien permanent ryger op.

2 kommentarer:

Morten - - - sagde ...

Og så kommer jeremiaderne: Hvorfor brugte vi ikke den tid, da vi havde nok olie, til at udvikle de mange fremragende idéer til transport med reduceret forbrug af fossile brændstoffer? Hvorfor udviklede vi ikke vores teknologi? Vi vidste jo godt ... enhver kunne jo se ... hvem har ansvaret! (Ja, hvem mon ...) :):):)

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Yorkshireminer sagde ...

Jeff Rubin is one of the more intelligent of the economic pundits, and I agree with him 90% of the time. I certainly agree with him that the oil was the cause of the collapse of the sub prime housing market and the beginning of the world recession, but I would like to put a different emphasis on the collapse. The capitalist banking system is based on fractional banking . Money is generated when you take a loan and disappears when that loan is paid off, to pay that loan off you have to pay off the loan plus interest, to pay off the interest you have to generate yet more loans its a pyramid scheme or a ponzi scheme as the American call it. It is not a problem if the economy keeps growing pumping more wealth into the system to service the new loans. Marion King Hubbert predicted that American oil production would peak in 1970 he predicted this in 1956, I wont go into the reason here and how he came to that conclusion. He also predicted that the worlds oil production would peak around the beginning of the new century. What has happened is that we have hit that peak, this means that we cannot pump more oil energy into the economy which means that it cannot grow which means that we can't service the new loans need too pay off the old loans so the whole economy grinds too a halt not only can it not grow but it starts to contract. What the American Central bank has done is first bail out the bankers otherwise the whole edifice would have crashed and burned. Because the financial system cannot generate new loans because they cannot get the economy going which means that cannot generate the wealth to pay off the loans they are resorting to a thing they call Quantitative easing, it is just another posh word for printing money, it works in exactly the same way as loans it pumps money into the system it keeps it stable. It will certainly keep the whole system going for a few more years yet We have been on a oil plateau bobbing around I think 87 million barrels of oil a day for the last 6 years. The real question that has got to be asked is what happens when we come off that plateau and world oil production begins too contract and the worlds economy starts to contract and with it the wealth needed to pay off the loans that are still on the books. There is no way Qualitative easing is going to help then, then it will be a matter of sticking your head between your legs and kissing your arse goodbye. I Have bookmarked your blog will be popping back regularly, I like to keep up with what is going on i lille Danmark.