Rumble in the discursive zone

En flok amerikanske top og mellemniveau efterretningsmænd, militærfolk og diplomater anklager nu Obama administrationen for at underspille faren i AFPAK regionen.

Under anonymitet, fordi deres vurderinger er klassificeret, og de har ikke tilladelse til at udtale sig offentligt, anklager de administrationen for at ikke tage efterretningstjenestens advarsler alvorligt, og være i færd med at udarbejde en alt for begrænset strategi med fokus på Al-Qaida:

White House officials, they said, have concluded that McChrystal's approach could be doomed by election fraud, corruption and other problems in Afghanistan; by continued Pakistani covert support for the insurgency; by the strains on the Army, Marine Corps and the federal budget; and by a lack of political and public support at home, which they fear could also undermine the president's domestic priorities...

"McChrystal and Petraeus are ignoring the problems their (counterinsurgency) approach would face in Afghanistan and here at home," said one intelligence official with extensive experience in South Asia and counterterrorism. "We don't have a reliable partner in Afghanistan or Pakistan; doubling the size of the Afghan army is a pipe dream, given the corruption and literacy problems; and neither Congress or the American people are likely to give it the money, the troops or the decade or so it would need to work, if it would work.

"Now the White House is downplaying the dangers of doing the only thing that they think Congress and the public will support - a limited war against the guys who hit us on 9/11. The truth is, both approaches have huge problems, and neither one's likely to work..."

A U.S. withdrawal or failure could permit al-Qaida and other groups export their violence from Afghanistan into Pakistan's heartland, the Indian-controlled side of the disputed Kashmir region and former Soviet republics in Central Asia whose autocrats have been repressing Islam for decades, the U.S. officials said...

"It is our belief that the primary focus of the Taliban is regional - that is, Afghanistan and Pakistan," one senior U.S. intelligence official said. "At the same time, there is no reason to believe that the Taliban are abandoning their connections to al Qaida, which has its sights set beyond the region."

"The two groups ... maintain the kind of close relationship that - if the Taliban were able to take effective control over parts of Afghanistan - would probably give al-Qaida expanded room to operate," the official added...

"Here we go again," a veteran U.S. intelligence official said. "The Bush administration ignored anything that didn't support its arguments for invading Iraq and exaggerated the threat from Saddam Hussein. This administration is minimizing the threat from radical Islam in South and Central Asia, which is much worse today than it was eight years ago, in order to defend a minimalist policy that it's settling on for domestic political reasons." (Kilde:)

"Kend din fjende", er militær strategens Sun Tzus vigtigste råd. Hvis man ikke ved, hvad man er oppe mod, har man kraftigt forøget risikoen for et nederlag, det gælder også på papiret stærke militærmagter som USA. I en guerilla krig kommer selv verdens største militær til kort. Den vil ikke tabe, men heller ikke vinde.
At sætte ambitionsniveauet ned i Afghanistan, kunne måske godt være påtvunget i den forstand, at man lemper på ambitionen om at skabe demokrati og loven er lige for alle, forhold. At man søger strategier, bruger udstyr, som udsætter soldaternes liv for mindre fare.
Men at forlade den del af verdens og overlade scenen til Al Qaida, Taleban og øvrige militante, fundamentalistiske grupper.
Det vil vitterlig skabe langt værre problemer, end dem vi står over for nu. Taleban i sig selv er som der ganske rigtigt antydes ikke provinsiel. Målet er universielt og jo flere lande som kan ende under Talebans og øvrige islamisters herredømme, jo bedre for dem.

Situationen er langt mere faretruende, end regeringerne giver udtryk for. Og det bliver angiveligt værre endnu. Værst hvis vi trækker os ud. Men også værre selv om vi bliver, skal vi gøre os det klart.

Vi må først og fremmest kende vores fjende. Og erkende at i en guerilla krig er der ingen som vinder.

Men tager vi ikke den guerillakrig, kommer langt flere mennesker til at dø på sigt. AFPAK regionen har brug for stabilitet, i form af militær og økonomisk hjælp. Ellers overlades scenen til islamisterne, og islamisme aldrig været et isoleret problem. Den er som marxismen en global revolutionær bevægelse, hvor terror kun er en teknik, et middel blandt mange.