onsdag den 2. februar 2011

En stemme - en gang

1 mand, 1 stemme, 1 enkelt gang. Det er pessimistens bud på demokrati i Egypten.

Vi taler om et land, der personificerer begrebet 'youth bulge'. Hvor ungdomsarbejdsløsheden er høj, og hvor millioner af unge mænd er ugifte, fordi de ikke har et arbejde, noget hus til den kommende kone. De har ingen fremtid, og selv dem, der besidder en fremtid, de er nok i højere grad, end vi kan forestille os - underdrivelse - villige til at genindføre den mørke middelalder:

But what do Egyptians really think? According to a recent Pew poll, they are extremely radical even in comparison to Jordan or Lebanon. When asked whether they preferred “Islamists” or “modernizers,” the score was 59% to 27% in favor of the Islamists. In addition, 20 percent said they liked al-Qaeda; 30 percent, Hezbollah; 49 percent, Hamas. And this was at a time that their government daily propagandized against these groups.

How about religious views? Egyptian Muslims said the following: 82 percent want adulterers punished with stoning; 77 percent want robbers to be whipped and have their hands amputated; 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

In a democracy, of course, these views are going to be expressed by how people vote. Even if Egypt does not have an Islamist government, it might well end up with a radical regime that caters to these attitudes and incites violence abroad.

There are reasons not to expect Egypt to turn into a moderate, stable, and democratic state: There are few forces favoring this outcome; the rebellion has no organization; Egypt doesn’t have the resources to raise living standards and distribute wealth; extremist ideologies are deeply held and widely spread.



Det er demografi, og det er store dele af Nordafrikas skæbne. Under den nuværende kultur kan man ikke skabe en økonomi, der understøtter de mange børn, eller giver de mange unge muligheden for karriere, arbejde og penge. Så kan de vende sig mod islamiske fantasier, hvilket jeg tror, de vil. Vrede og desperate - intet at tabe og alt at vinde.

Vist har de en vag drøm om frihed, men hvem er organiseret til at vinde et valg, hvem skyr ingen midler? Hvad skete der i Iran og Algeriet?

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