onsdag den 1. september 2010

Den mulige aftensang for vores økonomi

Lad os gå tilbage i historien. Japans tabte årti startede med en boligboble og efterfølgende faldt kurserne på aktier, og boligpriserne og ingen af delene er kommer sig endnu:

The Nikkei stock index hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989 when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. Additionally, banks granted increasingly risky loans.

Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow and other cities. Tens of trillions of dollars worth were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets. Only in 2007 had property prices begun to rise; however, they began to fall in late 2008 due to the financial crisis.

Og fra artiklen om det tabte årti i Japan;

Michael Schuman of Time Magazine noted that banks kept injecting new funds into unprofitable "zombie firms" to keep them afloat, arguing that they were too big to fail. However, most of these companies were too debt-ridden to do much more than survive on further bailouts, which led to an economist describing Japan as a "loser's paradise." Schuman states that Japan's economy did not begin to recover until this practice had ended.[2]

Lyder som noget vi kan se i dag? Først boligboblen, så Obama der gældsætter USA for at redde en lang række "To big to fail"?

Således har prisstigningen i det generelle danske boligmarked set ud:

En fordobling af priserne over cirka tre år, men i hovedstaden Århus har det set langt værre ud med langt over det dobbelte af fordoblinger af prisen siden begyndelsen af halvfemserne. Måtte det gå galt? Eller var det lønstigningerne som ikke blev så høje som forventet? For at være en smule sarkastisk.

Hvis vi følger det Japanske eksempel, kan vi som i allerede kan læse se frem til fald i boligpriserne over lang, lang tid. Boligpriserne har taget forskud på flere års lønstigninger og kun lav rente og afdragsfrie lån og bankpakker holder hånden under boblens fulde fald.

Sådan endte det i Japan, sammenlignet med boligboblen i USA:



Verdensøkonomien står over et tabt årti, eller to, indtil Kina for alvor kan overtage rollen som globalt økonomisk lokomotiv, Hvis landet altså kan undgå at falde for kraftigt i boligboblefælden på grund af de hurtige penge, der er i den branche, når man få afkast på flere hundrede pct. inden for få år.

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